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Nigeria’s mobility market is at an inflection point due to the combined factors of relatively low cost electric vehicles with much simpler maintenance needs, distributed solar energy potential, falling battery costs, and policy incentives that make electrification a practical path to expand affordable access rather than merely substitute existing transport modes. Under the assumed usage and willingness to pay parameters, the near term opportunity is in the order of "₦" 22"-₦" 44" trillion" annually, highlighting a compelling total addressable market for operators and investors to pursue.
The opportunity
Nigeria already has the right conditions for EV growth, led by two- and three-wheelers where it is already much cheaper for the nearly 14 million riders to buy and operate electric alternatives largely for logistics and ride-hailing (e.g., okada, keke) use cases. This echoes progress seen in Kenya’s e-motorcycle programs. Off-grid solar charging and distributed energy, such as projects like Lagos Island’s solar initiatives, pair well with EVs to improve charging reliability independent of grid constraints. Global battery pack prices fell materially in 2024 and low-cost models from China are entering Nigeria. Policy incentives, including import-duty exemptions and up to 10-year tax relief for EV manufacturers, further improve economics and investment appetite.
Unlocking latent demand by lowering cost per trip is the fastest route to scale, as EVs can extend mobility to underserved riders instead of only replacing fossil fuel trips. EV-enabled mobility represents an estimated ₦22–₦44 trillion annual market when combining served and underserved riders under reasonable assumptions about trip frequency and willingness to pay of roughly ₦300–₦500 per trip across ~300 active travel days per year for commuters. Lower EV cost per trip is expected to unlock substantial new demand, with 20–30% of the 239 million population considered underserved or excluded from affordable mobility, per an illustrative framework referencing Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, the United Nation, and World Bank.
The obstacles
Despite the growing interest in electric vehicles across Nigeria, several major obstacles are slowing down progress. One of the biggest challenges is the lack of reliable infrastructure. Despite growing fast, charging stations are few and far between, and the country’s power grid is often unstable, making it difficult for drivers to count on consistent access to electricity. This means that even if someone buys an EV, they may worry about how to keep it charged and ready for daily use. Additionally, most EVs and their parts are imported, which leads to long delivery times and higher costs. Without much local manufacturing or assembly, it’s hard for the market to respond quickly to demand, and buyers often face delays of several months before receiving their vehicles.
Another significant roadblock is the shortage of technical expertise and support. Even though they have something on the order of 80% or more fewer parts, they still need to be maintained. There aren’t enough trained technicians who can maintain and repair EVs. This can leave owners stranded if something goes wrong. Financing is also a hurdle; banks and lenders are still figuring out how to assess the risks and benefits of EV investments, so getting a loan or lease for an electric vehicle can be complicated, especially for fleet operators who arguably have the most to gain from this market shift. Finally, there’s a lack of reliable market data, which makes it tough for financial institutions, businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about where to invest and how to grow the EV ecosystem. All these factors combined create a challenging environment for widespread EV adoption, but addressing them could unlock new opportunities for cleaner, more affordable transportation in Nigeria.
Building the EV ecosystem
A thriving EV ecosystem requires balancing vehicle supply, charging, and batteries, supported by manufacturers, assemblers, distribution and repair networks, fleet operators, energy supply, EVSE importers, technicians, battery suppliers, diagnostics, and end-of-life solutions. Standards across vehicles, charging interfaces, and battery form factors are essential to reduce fragmentation, improve interoperability, and let new entrants scale efficiently. This alignment enables predictable uptime, lower total cost of ownership, and investment-grade performance visibility for operators and financiers. None of this can happen without a significant amount of capital to spur growth, which then becomes one of the biggest challenges for business leaders.
To attract capital at scale, companies must be investable. But most of the capital required will not come from equity investments, it should be paid for via debt. Debt providers need to build the technical know-how to finance the EV value chain starts with clear evaluation of vehicle, charging, and battery risks, alongside benchmarking uptime, energy costs, and maintenance across operators. They must do away with the traditional requirements like huge deposits – often up to 120% of the money borrowed – as collateral. Instead, they should determine bankability via fit-for-purpose metrics and tests linked to demand validation (e.g., regional growth plans, development partnerships), technical capabilities (e.g., cycle life, degradation, spare parts availability, load management), and operational capabilities (e.g., technician training, daily charging throughput, maintenance practices). This technical knowledge should be institutionalized within credit and product teams at lenders and investors to improve speed, consistency, and quality of underwriting for EV assets and business models.
Simultaneously, this will challenge entrepreneurs to meet more stringent standards by meeting operational, safety, and data reporting standards that enable consistent underwriting and monitoring across vehicles, charging, and batteries. It will also help customers build confidence in the new technology.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s EV transition is underway and will provide access to transportation for a much broader swath of the population providing a significant boost to the overall economy. To accelerate this momentum, the ecosystem must be intentionally developed with combine policy incentives, local capacity building, and access to finance with robust data-driven frameworks.
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